Why is Canada's future as a united country uncertain?

Answer 1

Canada's future as a united country is unlikely because Canada is a Confederation of many countries or Nations and Confederations are by their nature short lived. Nations Confederate for a purpose and once that purpose is dealt with there is no need to continue with the Confederation.

In the case of the Canadian Confederation the purpose was the American threat. Fear of an American invasion was a key reason to Confederate.

Today Canada has integrated its military with the USA, leaving Canada, who once had the 7th largest military in the world, with a military unable to defend Canada against any serious aggression and even less so against the feared American invasion. Canada is also in the process of integrating border services with the USA, a move that will not doubt follow that of our military integration resulting in Canada being even less able to defend its borders.

The reason for Confederating no longer exists.

There are other reasons why Canada is unlikely to remain as a single country and many of them have to do with how Canada expanded after the original four colonies confederated.

Most of Canada seen on today's maps was purchased by Canada, given to Canada or taken by force. The people in those areas where not asked if they wanted to be colonised by Canada. Areas in which people resisted Canadian colonisation were persuaded by the Canadian military that being colonised was better than the resisting.

The lasting result of Canadian colonisation is seen today in the many inequities of Confederation. We can see that today in political representation in the Canadian government. Even though most Canadians live in Ontario and West of Ontario most of the seats in the House of Commons and in the Senate are held by Ontario and those East of Ontario.

The same effect is seen in Federal expenditures. Even though most of the Federal Funding comes from Ontario and West of Ontario most of the federal government expenditures, departments, and federal jobs are in Ontario and East of Ontario.

Other colonial issues include language laws which have provinces in the West giving preferential treatment to people from one culture, the French culture of the mother country, over many others. Even though the French make up less than 5% of the population in most areas of Canada they have special language status, federal jobs, and many services not available to those from other cultures and languages even when some of those other languages are used by a very much larger percentage of the population.

These and other inequities make the current Confederation agreements unsustainable but at the same time the Canadian Constitution cannot be amended.

When Canada wrote it's constitution, it was written by a poltical party from Ontario and Quebec. They ensured that the constitution could not be amended without their agreement. Even if all other members, more than 8 of them, ageed a change was required it could be blocked by just two members.

Since those two members disproportionately benefit from the current arrangements change is unlikely. Just recently the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada made it clear that Senate reform was going to get his parties support because the current arrangement benefits his home province.

There is also a strong belief in Eastern Canada that the former Canadian colonies in Western Canada owe them and that what is seen as inequities in the West is seen as reasonable in the East. And why would they in the East give up their special status when in some cases that special status is a very significant percentage of their economy?

Since change is going to be demanded by the West and resisted by the East, and since the West has the resources and money and are fully able to go it alone, either separately, together or as part of the USA, Canada, an empire of almost 10 million sq/km is unlikely to remain as a single country forever.

The question was only about why remaining united was unlikely. There are forces at work in Canada that would see Confederation end and be replaced by a Federation, not unlike the USSR in which the Federation would be dominated by one region. There are also global oil politics, American control of Canada, and other forces working to prevent significant changes to the current systems but that would be for another question.