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New flu viruses develop most often in Asia and then circulate throughout the rest of the world. For the Northern Hemisphere in the western regions, the scientists and epidemiologists look to Asia to see what types of flu are circulating during their flu season as these will be the most likely to be circulating elsewhere in the world that year.

The vaccines are either trivalent or quadrivalent (i.e., contain three or four kinds of flu viruses) and are made with those flu viruses selected by the scientists as most likely, utilizing various criteria for selection.

The types and strains finally chosen to be included in the annual vaccines are chosen by collaboration between the CDC, WHO, and the disease control and prevention agencies in other nations. These infectious disease specialists not only select the type of viruses needed to be included that year, but also help isolate, grow and select the specific strains that are more easily grown, closest to the types found circulating in Asia, and able to be used in creation of vaccines.

The vaccines are developed by pharmaceutical companies who get the seed stock of viruses for use in the vaccines from the epidemiologists, (in the US from the CDC). The only thing that is changed each year is the specific group of viruses included, the rest of the vaccine is made the same each year and has been for decades.

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Q: How do scientists predict the influenza that will be here each year?
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